Economists at BBH remain Dollar bulls.
Stronger Dollar should continue to put downward pressure on EM FX
As bad as things may get in the US, the rest of the world looks even worse.
Dollar bears should be asking whether the Euro or Sterling looks that much better than the Dollar. China too is looking quite weak and in that regard, EM will likely remain under pressure.
Not only is China struggling to grow but because of the knock-on effects to EM growth, policymakers there are likely to cut rates sooner rather than later. Hungary, Chile, and Brazil have already cut rates and Poland is up next.
Lower EM rates combined with a hawkish Fed, higher US rates, and a stronger Dollar should continue to put downward pressure on EM FX.
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