GBP/JPY CLOSED ABOVE THE 20-DAY SMA, BEARS ARE GAINING GROUND

GBP/JPY rose above 184.50, consolidating above the 20-day SMA.

The daily and four-hour chart flash bearish signals.

The GBP/JPY cross closed on Monday, a consecutive day of gains, but bulls seem to be running out of steam.

That being said, fundamentals favour the bulls over the bears; as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has stated, changes to monetary policy will only be entertained once local wage and inflation indicators match their projections. On the other hand, investors are pricing in that the Bank of England (BoE) will lift rates to 6%, and monetary policy divergences should maintain the bullish bias intact. On the data front, investors will eye labour market data on Tuesday from Japan and Retail Sales figures from July on Wednesday.

However, on the daily chart for the short term, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned flat above its midline. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence (MACD) histogram displays increasing red bars signifying that the bears are slowly gaining ground. There are also signs of exhaustion on the shorter four-hour chart, with the RSI and MACD turning flat in positive territory. 

In terms of upcoming supports and resistances, immediate resistances for the bulls is given by the 185.00 area, followed by the 185.80 zone and the cycle high of 186.75 struck last Tuesday. On the downside, the 20-day SMA at 183.95 offers strong support for the cross. If lost, the pair could retest the 183.00 and 181.00 levels