Economists at ING analyze the Turkish Lira (TRY) outlook ahead of Turkey’s central bank (CBT) rate setting meeting today.

The final CBT hike

The Central Bank of Turkey is expected to conclude its tightening cycle with a 250 bps rate hike – taking the one-week policy rate to 45.00%. 

We presume the CBT will retain the language that it can hike again if necessary. 

For reference, the TRY is one of the very few emerging market currencies with positive total returns against the Dollar this year. With cross-market volatility low, it looks like investors are keen to take on Turkish foreign currency risk and try to receive rates. We tend to cautiously favour these strategies too.