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The Dollar direction today will be determined by the US consumer. Economists at ING analyze Greenback’s outlook ahead of January Retail Sales data.
We and the market are looking for some softening in the January retail sales figures today, but the consensus of a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the retail sales control group (from 0.8% MoM in December) hardly signals cause for alarm.
Barring a huge downside surprise in retail sales or a surge in initial jobless claims (to support the anecdotal news of rising US layoffs) we do not think the Dollar has to come too much lower. Subdued cross-market volatility is keeping interest in the carry trade alive and also benefitting the high-yielding Dollar.
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