EUR/USD races higher ahead of PMI data. Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook. 

Different EUR/USD outlook today?

In the Eurozone, PMIs are on the agenda and our economists expect the services PMI to come in slightly above the Bloomberg consensus. We also expect the index for the manufacturing sector to be higher than the consensus. For the time being, this argues for a stronger Euro against the USD than we have seen recently. 

In addition, slightly weaker figures are expected from the US. The PMIs there would still be clearly in expansionary territory, but the slight upward trend would also come to a halt for the time being. Moreover, initial jobless claims are expected to rise slightly. This would certainly not be the end of the great US growth story, but after all the recent positive surprises, it may also be a sign that things are not going to get better forever.

Of course, it has to be said that PMIs in particular often have to be viewed with a high degree of uncertainty. There are often significant surprises, which ultimately determine market movements. However, if the figures are roughly in line with expectations and our economists are correct in their assessment, then things should not look too bad for the Euro today. On the other hand, if the US data casts even the slightest doubt on the current strong growth story, EUR/USD could rise further today.