Economists at MUFG Bank do not expect the EUR/USD pair to move sustainably higher over the short term.
There is a bigger risk of a sooner pivot from the ECB than the Fed
The ECB remains overly cautious in our view and we maintain over the short term that there is a bigger risk of a sooner pivot from the ECB than the Fed.
The updated forecasts next week will see cuts to both GDP growth and inflation. Inflation forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are already around target at 2.1% and 1.9% so that will make it difficult for EUR/USD to make any sustained move higher over the near term.
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