Expectations on the March 6 UK Budget may slowly start to feed into the Pound Sterling (GBP) price action. Economists at ING analyze how the Spring Budget could impact the GBP.
GBP would again come under pressure were Chancellor Hunt to misread the mood of gilt investors
Continued investor interest in the carry trade should keep Sterling reasonably well bid. And given our medium-term fair value calculations that GBP/USD is some 7% undervalued and that the Dollar will roll lower later this year, we remain happy with a 12-month target at just over 1.3000.
Were Chancellor Hunt to misread the mood of gilt investors and cause another upset, Sterling would again come under pressure. Short-term models suggest a 2% sell-off in Sterling could happen quite easily were investors to again demand a risk premium of Sterling asset markets.
On the positive side for Sterling, there is some speculation that Chancellor Hunt is looking at improving incentives for global multinationals to list in the UK or for British savers to direct investments towards UK asset markets as well. These measures probably will not quite extend as far as the US Homeland Investment Act – a major support for the Dollar – but should be monitored nonetheless.
風險提示：本文所述僅代表作者個人觀點，不代表 Followme 的官方立場。Followme 不對內容的準確性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保證，對於基於該內容所採取的任何行為，不承擔任何責任，除非另有書面明確說明。
暫無評論，立馬搶沙發