Daily digest market movers: Divergence taking place

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  • This Friday is set to kick off near 14:45 GMT, with the final reading of the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for February. Expectations are for an unchanged reading at 51.5.
  • At 15:00 GMT, both the University of Michigan and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its data:
    • For the final February reading from the University of Michigan:
      • Consumer Sentiment is expected to remain unchanged at 79.6.
      • The Inflation expectations were in the preliminary number at 2.9%. There is no forecast available for the final reading.
    • The ISM PMI data release will contain the following elements:
      • The headline Manufacturing PMI is seen increasing from 49.1 to 49.5.
      • The Manufacturing Employment subcomponent was previously at 47.1. No forecast is available.
      • The New Orders Index was at 52.5, with no forecast available.
      • The Prices Paid Index is expected to tick up from 52.9 to 53.0.
  • The Federal Reserve has its own schedule this Friday:
    • Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are set to participate in a panel at 15:15 GMT.
    • Raphael Bostic, head of the Atlanta Fed, is due to speak at 17:15 GMT.
    • San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid will participate in a panel discussion at 18:30 GMT.
    • Fed Board of Governors member Adriana Kugler will speak at around 20:30 GMT.
    • At 16:00 GMT, the Fed will release its Monetary Policy Report which will be sent to Congress before the semi-annual hearings take place next week. 
  • Equities are in the green across the board from Asia to US futures. During the Asian trading session, Nasdaq futures have already hit an all-time high. 
  • According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, expectations for a Fed pause in the March 20 meeting are at 97%, while chances of a rate cut stand at 3%. 
  • The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.27%, broadly unchanged for the past three days. 


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