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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down modestly on the session so far but is heading for a mild gain on the week. Shaun Osborne, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, analyzes Greenback’s outlook.
US core PCE data was in line with market forecasts of a 0.4% MoM gain. With a firmer number largely discounted by markets, the on-consensus outcome was treated more like a dovish surprise. The 3m annualized reading did edge up modestly (2.2%, from 2.1%) but holding close to 2% will likely reassure policymakers that underlying pressures are abating slowly. A few more months of data are needed to persuade the Fed that prices are moving sustainably towards 2%.
The index remains relatively ‘rich’ versus spread-based fair value, according to my estimate at least. That still rather suggests to me that the USD may find it hard to advance significantly, without more support from firmer data and/or higher yields at this point.
風險提示：本文所述僅代表作者個人觀點，不代表 Followme 的官方立場。Followme 不對內容的準確性、完整性或可靠性作出任何保證，對於基於該內容所採取的任何行為，不承擔任何責任，除非另有書面明確說明。
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