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Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to announce its latest policy decision. But we are unlikely to hear much more than what many ECB members told us back in February, Antje Praefcke, FX Analyst at Commerzbank, says.
President Christine Lagarde's reference to a further decline in inflation combined with the weakness of the economy could cause some to increase their skepticism about the Euro, although the likelihood of the ECB cutting before June is not high.
Reliable data on wage trends will not be available until the end of May, and the ECB will probably want to wait for the data before taking action. At the meeting in April and in the weeks after that, it can still prepare the market sufficiently for a possible interest rate cut in June, which is already priced in anyway.
Unless something unexpected comes from the ECB today, I see at most a moderate reaction of the Euro to statements that more or less clearly bring a first rate cut into play.
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