After a lacklustre start to the year, Oil prices are starting to come to life. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze Brent’s outlook.

Oil bulls are quietly winning the narrative

Oil bulls are quietly winning the narrative as prices are working their way higher, with a breakout of the $10 range that Brent crude has been confined to so far in 2024, now imminent. Granted, the steady climb is not remarkable, but economic exceptionalism, tightening fundamentals and prompt oil time spreads in backwardation (signalling supply tightness) is reinforcing the constructive narrative.

We maintain our Brent call that prices will hover within a $80.00-$90.00 range this year and view that Oil markets will remain supported by tight micro fundamentals (moderate deficits), OPEC driven carry and effective hedging value against negative geopolitical supply shocks.