Technical Analysis: USD/JPY seems poised to appreciate further

From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair is holding above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the February-March downfall and seems poised to climb further. The constructive outlook is reinforced by the fact that oscillators on the daily chart have just started gaining positive traction. Hence, some follow-through strength towards the 149.75-149.80 horizontal barrier, en route to the 150.00 psychological mark, looks like a distinct possibility. A sustained strength beyond the latter might trigger a fresh bout of a short-covering move towards the 150.65-150.70 region before bulls aim to retest the YTD peak, around the 151.00 mark touched on February 13.

On the flip side, the 149.00 round-figure mark now seems to have emerged as an immediate support. Any further slide is more likely to attract some dip-buying and remain limited near the 148.30 region. This is followed by the 148.00 round figure, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the downfall towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged near the 147.65 region. A convincing break below might shift the bias in favour of bearish traders and drag spot prices further towards the 147.00 mark en route to the monthly swing low, around the 146.50-146.45 region.