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USD/JPY rallied on what in the end was a widely expected BoJ rate hike. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.
The broad-based view is that the gulf in interest rates between Japan and many other central banks in the G10 space means that the Yen will still be used as a funding currency in a low-volatility world.
Our baseline view now sees USD/JPY perhaps trading around the 150.00-152.00 area as long as short-term US rates stay firm. When they turn lower over the coming months, USD/JPY should head down to the 145.00 area and probably close to 140.00 later this year when the Fed easing cycle is in full swing (we look for 125 bps of Fed cuts this year).
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