EUR/USD struggles to gain traction in the second half of the week. Will the easter bunny bring quotes below 1.0800? Economists at Commerzbank analyze the pair’s outlook.

Maybe a little tailwind for the Dollar

The real data heavyweight is not on the agenda until Good Friday: the deflator for consumer spending or the PCE index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. However, as the consumer and producer price data for February have already been published, the PCE index is normally quite easy to forecast. 

Our experts expect 0.4% month-on-month and 0.3% for the core rate, which should mean annual rates of 2.5% and 2.8% respectively. The data for December and January are likely to be revised slightly upwards.

Although June is now back in focus as the timing for the first Fed rate cut, the still stubbornly high inflation data or statements such as that made by FOMC Governor Christopher Waller at the Economic Club of New York that there is no rush to cut the key interest rate, could still lead to the Dollar gaining a tailwind in thin markets and EUR/USD cracking the 1.0800 mark on the Easter weekend.