Current trend

The Australian currency could not take advantage of the local correction in the American dollar to further strengthen its position in the AUD/USD pair. During the Asian session, it remained at 0.6573, receiving support from macroeconomic statistics.

The March service PMI rose from 53.1 points to 54.4 points, and the February number of building permits increased by 5.2%, slowing the decline from –2.5% to –1.9% YoY. Data on foreign trade levels were slightly worse, and considering the decline in exports by 2.2% after an increase of 1.5% earlier and an increase in imports from 1.4% to 4.8% earlier in March, the trade balance fell from 10.058B dollars to 7.280B dollars.

The American dollar stabilized at 104.00 in USDX. Initial jobless claims increased from 212.0K to 221.0K against preliminary estimates of 213.0K, while the total number of claims decreased from 1.810M to 1.791M. The average claims over the past four weeks increased from 211.50K to 214.25K. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), the nonfarm payrolls will be published, and analysts expect their number will increase by 212.0K compared to 275.0K a month earlier, putting pressure on the national currency.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument moves towards the upper border of the ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 0.6680–0.6510.

Technical indicators are strengthening the buy signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are close to the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is approaching the sell zone, preparing to confirm the upward signal.

Resistance levels: 0.6600, 0.6680.

Support levels: 0.6540, 0.6450.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6600, with the target at 0.6680. Stop loss – 0.6550. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.6540, with the target at 0.6450. Stop loss – 0.6600.