Current trend

The NZD/USD pair is correcting near 0.5995: the New Zealand dollar cannot restore its position against poor macroeconomic statistics.

Thus, in March, electronic card retail sales decreased by 0.7% or 45.0M New Zealand dollars compared to February, and relative to the same period in 2023, the decrease was 3.0%. Six of the seven main sectors showed negative dynamics, and only the wholesale trade sector, excluding services, grew by 2.1%. The most weakened sectors were clothing (–2.2%) and motor vehicles (–2.2%). Sales of fuel lost 1.4%, durable goods – 0.3%, and consumables – 0.2%.

The American dollar, which remains the main driver of the asset, reached its high of 105.00 in the USDX yesterday. Investors reacted positively to the initial jobless claims data, which reflected a decrease from 222.0K to 211.0K, and the total number of claims amounted to 1.817M, higher than 1.789M previously, and the average one was 214.25K compared to 214.50K last week.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is declining, being significantly below the resistance line of the downward corridor with dynamic boundaries of 0.5880–0.6070.

Technical indicators are strengthening the sell signal: fast EMA on the Alligator indicator are significantly below the signal line, maintaining a wide range of fluctuations, and the AO histogram is forming corrective bars below the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.6030, 0.6110.

Support levels: 0.5970, 0.5870.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.5970, with the target at 0.5870. Stop loss – 0.6030. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Long positions may be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.6030, with the target at 0.6110. Stop loss – 0.5980.