Current trend

After reaching 0.5928, the NZD/USD pair is correcting as a result of the New Zealand macroeconomic statistics release.

Thus, the Q1 consumer price index fell to 4.0% YoY compared to the forecast of 4.3% and remained at 0.6% QoQ, justifying expert forecasts, which allows officials of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to begin adjusting the interest rate earlier than expected. The regulator may change the current parameters at the meeting on May 22. Credit card spending totaled 3.794B New Zealand dollars in March, up 0.7% from February’s 3.697B New Zealand dollars but below the 2023 figure of 4.018B New Zealand dollars.

The long-term trend is downward. The price tested the support level of 0.5860 and began a correction, reaching the resistance level of 0.5928. If it holds, downward dynamics may develop towards 0.5860. After a breakdown, the sales target will be 0.5790. If the price grows and consolidates above 0.5928, the correction will continue to 0.6005.

The medium-term trend is downward: last week, the quotes broke through zone 3 (0.5949–0.5935) and headed towards zone 4 (0.5809–0.5795). In the event of a correction to the trend resistance area of 0.6006–0.5992, short positions with the first target at last week’s low of 0.5856 are relevant. To change the trend, the asset needs to consolidate above 0.6006.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.5928, 0.6005, 0.6069.

Support levels: 0.5860, 0.5789.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from 0.5928, with the target at 0.5860 and stop loss 0.5952. Implementation time: 9–12 days.

Long positions may be opened above 0.5952, with the target at 0.6005 and stop loss 0.5928.