- Data revealed in April showed that Mexico’s inflation was mixed as headline inflation rose, mostly attributed to a jump in Oil prices. Contrarily, underlying prices dipped, justifying the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) decision to lower rates.
- Although most analysts estimate Banxico will hold rates unchanged at 11.00%, new data could open the door for heated discussions among Banxico’s Governing Council members on May 9.
- Last week, Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja said the central bank would be data-dependent. However, weak GDP data could pave way for a “live meeting” on May 9.
- Citibanamex Survey showed that most analysts expect Banxico to hold rates unchanged at the May meeting. The median foresees a rate cut in June, while they estimate the main reference rate to end the year at 10.00%, up from 9.63% previously.
- A broad gauge of US labor costs closely watched by the Federal Reserve accelerated in the first quarter by more than forecast, illustrating persistent wage pressure that is keeping inflation elevated.
- US Employment Cost Index (ECI), a measure of wages and benefits, rose by 1.2% QoQ after rising 0.9% at the end of 2023, exceeding forecasts of 1%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). That would keep the Fed on its holding pattern as fears of inflation reaccelerating loom.
- US Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence dropped in April from 103.1 to 97, its lowest level since mid-2022 as Americans’ view of the job market and the outlook for the economy deteriorated.
- Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at May 1 meeting, though traders will be eyeing Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. A hawkish tilt could trigger a jump in favor of the Greenback; otherwise, the USD/MXN could resume its downtrend.
- Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggests that traders expect the fed funds rate to finish 2024 at 5.080%, up from 5.035% on Monday.
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