The US Dollar (USD) continues to lack a significant trend and remains to the topside of a two-month trading range. US interest rate volatility remains subdued and that means interest has resumed in the yen-funded carry trade, Chris Turner, Global Head of Markets at ING, notes.

US presidential debate and core PCE to drive USD moves

“The dollar remains sidelined ahead of two key event risks later this week. Thursday night sees the first presidential debate between President Biden and Donald Trump on CNN. It may be too early to expect this, but we will want to see whether the dollar responds to who 'wins' the debate.”

“But the bigger market mover this week will be Friday's core PCE inflation read. Should it meet expectations of a 0.1% month-on-month reading, we suspect the short-end of the US curve can come lower and take the dollar with it. However, most of any dollar downside will be felt against the likes of the Australian dollar and the Norwegian krone.”

“The US data calendar is quiet today apart from what is expected to be a modest dip in US June consumer confidence. DXY to trade well within a 105.00 to 106.00 range.”