- Mexico’s June mid-month consumer prices rose above estimates, which would likely deter Banxico from easing policy, on June 27.
- Headline inflation jumped from 4.70% expected to 4.78% YoY, though core prices edged lower from 4.31% to 4.17% YoY.
- Citibanamex survey showed economists priced out fewer rate cuts by the central bank, estimating rates will be lowered to 10.25% in 2024, up from 10.00%. Regarding the USD/MXN, the consensus estimates the exchange rate will end the year at 18.70, up from 18.00 in the previous report.
- Regarding economic growth, the consensus revised the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024 downward from 2.2% to 2.1% YoY.
- Last week’s Banxico’s verbal intervention underpinned the Mexican Peso as the USD/MXN hit an 11-day low. However, the Fed's hawkish comments weighed on the emerging market currency.
- CME FedWatch Tool shows odds for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut at 59.5%, down from 61.1% last Monday.
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