United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR and GBP but weakening against JPY.

In the absence of significant economic releases, political events came to the forefront for investors. The day before, the US Democratic Party changed its candidate for the post of head of the White House: instead of the current President Joe Biden, it will be Vice President Kamala Harris. However, most experts still consider Republican candidate Donald Trump more likely to win the election. If this happens, US economic policy could change significantly: the new administration will likely impose tariffs on Chinese exports in an effort to protect its own producers, and personal and corporate taxes will be reduced, which will free up additional capital for investment, but could contribute to faster inflation and a slowdown in easing monetary policy.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against its main competitors – JPY, GBP, and USD.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the movement of the euro is determined by external factors. It is only worth noting the comments of the Vice President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Luis de Guindos, who hinted at the possibility of lowering interest rates in September. The official noted that by the fall the regulator will have more data on inflation, as well as an updated forecast for consumer price growth for 2026, which, according to current expectations, will reach the target of 2.0% in the last quarter of this year.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against EUR but weakening against USD and JPY.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the movement of the pound is determined by external factors. On Wednesday, investors expect the publication of preliminary July data on business activity: the Manufacturing PMI may rise from 50.9 points to 51.1 points, the Services PMI – from 52.1 points to 52.5 points, and the Composite PMI – from 52 .3 points to 52.6 points. The implementation of the forecasts will indicate the stability of the economy but will add uncertainty to the further actions of the Bank of England due to the continued risks of a significant rise in prices, which may give officials reasons to keep interest rates at current levels for a longer period.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and USD.

The yen received support amid statements by a senior official of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, Toshimitsu Motegi, who yesterday called on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to make clear its determination to normalize monetary policy through a sustained rise in interest rates. Experts believe that Japanese politicians are increasingly concerned about the weakness of the national currency and are trying to put pressure on the regulator to increase borrowing costs. However, most analysts believe that the BoJ will leave interest rates unchanged at its July 31 meeting and may begin raising them again only in the fall.

Australia

AUD is weakening against JPY, GBP, and USD but has ambiguous dynamics against EUR.

In the absence of significant economic releases, the movement of the Australian dollar is determined by external factors. It is only worth noting the publication of forecasts by the National Australia Bank (NAB) regarding further changes in monetary policy: experts believe that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not begin reducing interest rates before May 2025 due to high inflation and a stable labor market, and the first reduction in borrowing will be 25 basis points. Note that analysts at Westpac Banking Corp. believe that the probability of an increase in the key rate by the Australian regulator is 30.0%, and the first reduction is possible no earlier than August 2025.

Oil

Oil prices are under pressure today amid expectations of an early truce between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas movement.

On Thursday, US President Joe Biden will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss details of the ceasefire agreement. When the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, the risks of supplies of petroleum products from the region will significantly decrease, and quotes may come under prolonged pressure. During the day, investors are also expecting the publication of weekly data on inventories from the American Petroleum Institute (API): they could decrease by 0.700 million barrels, after which the decline in the trading instrument will continue.