• Dow Jones climbed around one hundred points amid tepid Monday markets.
• Broad-market hopes for a Fed rate cut have run into the ceiling.
• Key US activity and inflation data looms ahead later in the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed around one hundred points on Monday in a thin recovery from last week’s late pullback. Equities are drifting into the high end, but the Dow Jones is holding steady as investors gear up for a fresh round of key US data due later in the week.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets are still pricing in an all-but-certain rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. Rate traders are pricing in 95% odds of at least a quarter-point rate trim when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets on September 18.

A fresh round of S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are due on Wednesday, followed by a Gross Domestic Product print on Thursday. Friday will wrap up the trading week with an update to the Personal Consumption Expenditure - Price Index (PCE) inflation figures.

Market participants looking for a Fed rate cut will be hoping for easing figures, and Wednesday’s Services PMI for July is expected to ease to 54.4 from 55.3. Annualized Q2 US GDP is expected to accelerate to 1.9% from 1.4%, and Friday’s PCE Price Index inflation for June is broadly expected to tick higher on the near end of the curve, forecast to print at 0.1% MoM versus the previous 0.0% print.