The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting on Wednesday but may hint at a potential 25 basis point rate cut in September. Evercore ISI strategists believe the Fed will wait until the Jackson Hole meeting in late August, after reviewing more data, before explicitly signaling a September cut. They expect Fed Chair Powell to build internal consensus and methodically prepare for this move.
The discussion leading up to the July meeting is centered on how proactive the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be in addressing inflation and employment risks. Key indicators to watch include any changes in the language on inflation progress and labor data, and whether there’s increased emphasis on the balance of risks.
Economists from Citi anticipate the Fed will use the July meeting to build support for a rate cut, likely implementing a 25 basis point reduction in September if inflation remains stable. They also note that a significant rise in unemployment or a worsening equity market could lead to more aggressive rate cuts.
Macquarie economists also predict a 25 basis point cut in September, with a total reduction of 75 basis points by early 2025, depending on labor market conditions.
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