- ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner noted, “We narrowly favor a hold in August but see a greater chance that the RBNZ will cut 50 bps in October after the Fed has moved first. Ultimately, with over 90 bps of easing priced in by year-end, the difference between a hawkish cut and a dovish hold may not be huge: we still think easing bets can be trimmed by year-end.”
- 12 of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect the RBNZ to leave its OCR unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday.
- Over half of the NZIER Shadow Board expects a 25 bps reduction in the OCR is required due to the persistent weakening of the New Zealand economy. The other members suggested that the New Zealand central bank should keep the OCR at 5.50%.
- The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to drop to 0.1% MoM in July from 0.2% in June.
- Traders have priced in a nearly 47.5% chance that the Fed will cut the rate by 50 basis points (bps) in the September meeting, down from 52.5% last Friday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
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