- Tensions grew over the weekend between Israel and Hezbollah with several attacks from both sides.
- The United Kingdom is on a bank holiday this Monday, which means reduced flows during the European trading session.
- In the US economic calendar, the Durable Goods Orders data for July are due to come out at 12:30 GMT:
- Headline Durable Goods Orders are expected to rebound to a 4% increase from the 6.7% plunge seen a month earlier
- Durable Goods without Transportation are expected to be unchanged following the prior month’s 0.4% increase..
- Revisions to the previous month’s data could be more market-moving than the actual number.
- Equities trade on the backfoot this Monday as traders engage in profit taking after the steep surge from Friday, which was caused by the dovish message from Fed Chairman Powell.
- The CME Fedwatch Tool shows a 61.5% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in September against a 38.5% chance for a 50 bps cut. Another 25 bps cut (if September is a 25 bps cut) is expected in November by 36.3%, while there is a 47.9% chance that rates will be 75 bps (25 bps 50 bps) below the current levels and a 15.8% probability of rates being 100 (25 bps 75 bps) basis points lower.
- The US 10-year benchmark rate trades at 3.78%, a fresh three-week low.
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