• Gold stabilizes at all-time highs as traders await US Retail Sales data and the key Fed policy decision on interest rates.
• Probabilities now favor a larger 0.50% cut to Fed base rates, which would boost the attractiveness of Gold.  
• Analysts call a 10-year secular bull trend starting for commodities, including Gold. 

Gold (XAU/USD) plateaus in the $2,580s on Tuesday, ahead of the release of potentially market-moving US data later in the day and the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting on Wednesday. 

Gold surges as bets increase the Fed will double cut

Gold shot to an all-time-high (ATH) of $2,589 on Monday after market bets that the Fed will make a double-dose 0.50% cut to interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday rose sharply, according to market-based gauges. 

The expectation that the Fed will slash interest rates is positive for Gold because it lowers the opportunity cost of holding the yellow metal, which is a non-interest-paying asset, thus making it more attractive to investors. 

US Retail Sales data, released at 12:30 GMT, could impact the Fed rates’ decision. If the data comes out above the 0.2% expected (0.3% ex autos) it will suggest the US economy is holding up better than expected and the Fed may not need to cut interest rates by such a large amount to help stimulate growth and employment. This scenario would be negative for Gold. 

Alternatively, if Retail Sales undershoots expectations, it will further increase speculation of a half a percentage point cut coming on Wednesday, and positively impact Gold, which could rise to new highs.