• USD/CAD strengthens around 1.3600 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
• Traders are pricing in nearly 60% odds of a 50 bps Fed rate cut. 
• Canadian CPI rose 2.0% YoY in August vs. 2.5% prior, softer than expected. 

The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory for a fourth consecutive day near 1.3600 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) gains ground after the better-than-expected Retail Sales data. Traders brace for the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is widely anticipated to lower its interest rate for the first time in more than four years.

Data released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday showed that US Retail Sales unexpectedly rose 0.1% MoM in August versus 1.1% prior. This figure was above the market consensus of -0.2% and suggested a sign of resilience among US households. Meanwhile, Industrial Production came in better than the estimation, climbing 0.8% MoM in August, compared to a decline of 0.6% in the previous reading. 

However, the August Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports did not convince the Fed officials much about the size of the rate cut at its September meeting. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, Fed funds futures have priced in a nearly 63% chance of a 50 basis points (bps) rate cut, up from 30% a week ago, while the odds of a 25 bps cut were at 37%. The jumbo Fed rate cut could further undermine the USD against its rivals.