Sweden's Riksbank is widely expected to cut rates by another 25bp today, Commerzbank’s FX strategist Francesco Pesole notes.

SEK to remain more sensitive to external factors

“Riksbank is expected to cut rates by another 25bp today. Governor Erik Thedeen and his colleagues have been giving rather explicit forward guidance to markets, signalling three rate cuts by the end of the year.”

“Despite some modest speculation for a 50bp reduction in one of those meetings, we think that signs of stabilisation in Sweden's economic outlook should discourage moves larger than 25bp. Markets are fully pricing in 25bp today and probably a reiteration of the recent pledge to keep cutting this year.”

“Ultimately, SEK should remain more sensitive to external factors, as the ratecutting cycle is priced in and the Riksbank seems on a stable and predictable path. EUR/SEK can remain under some pressure and test 11.20 in the near term.”