Current trend

During the Asian session, the USD/CHF pair shows ambiguous dynamics, holding near the high of August 19 at 0.8625, renewed at the beginning of the week. Investor activity remains low, while earlier, American markets were closed due to national holidays, and little macroeconomic statistics entered the market.

Thus, the October manufacturing PMI of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York changed from 11.5 points to –11.9 points, significantly worse than the forecast of 2.3 points. Today, during the day, the August report on the state of the national budget is due. According to preliminary estimates, the balance surplus will be 61.0B dollars compared to the deficit of 380.0B dollars earlier.

In Switzerland, the September producer price index fell from –1.2% to –1.3% YoY and from 0.2% to –0.1% versus expectations of 0.1% MoM. Further weakening of inflationary pressure signals an interest rate adjustment by the Swiss National Bank soon. On Thursday at 14:15 (GMT 2), traders will pay attention to the results of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting. Analysts expect the regulator will change the interest rate by another –25 basis points to 3.40%.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are steadily growing: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics soon. The MACD indicator is rising, maintaining a buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is near its highs, indicating that the US currency may become overbought in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 0.8641, 0.8673, 0.8700, 0.8730.

Support levels: 0.8600, 0.8570, 0.8541, 0.8517.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after a breakout of 0.8641, with the target at 0.8700. Stop loss — 0.8600. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

Short positions may be opened after a breakdown of 0.8600 level, with the target at 0.8517. Stop loss — 0.8641.