- EUR/USD faces pressure due to the US Dollar’s outperformance in the past few weeks. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its upside to near 103.40. The Greenback strengthens as traders see the US Federal Reserve (Fed) gradually reducing interest rates in the remainder of the year.
- The Fed is expected to shift to a ‘moderate’ policy-easing stance from ‘aggressive’ as fears of an economic slowdown have waned after Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) grew strongly, with price pressures rising faster than expected in September.
- According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are confident that the central bank will cut interest rates by 25 bps in November and December.
- On the contrary, Fed Governor Christopher Waller cautioned over interest rate cuts this week in a speech at Stanford University, citing that "Whatever happens in the near term, my baseline still calls for reducing the policy rate gradually over the next year," Reuters reported. When asked about the current status of the job market, Waller said, “The labor market remains healthy, even as labor demand is moderating.”
- Going forward, the next trigger for the US Dollar will be the monthly Retail Sales data for September, which will be published on Thursday. Economists expect the Retail Sales data to have grown by 0.3% after rising 0.1% in August.
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