Speculative shorts on JPY are rising further – OCBC

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is playing the outlier role, being the developed currency with the greatest influence from domestic events, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Risks of further JPY near-term selling remain elevated

“Speculative shorts on JPY are rising further after the ruling coalition lost parliament majority: now, the focus is back on the level at which authorities will want to put a stop to the USD/JPY rally. Remember that the latest round of FX intervention was initiated right after a JPY-positive market event.”

“Following a similar script, the Minister of Finance may not have a line in the sand for the pair (for example 155.0), but perhaps adopt a more opportunistic approach based on market moves. Anyway, risks of further JPY near-term selling remain elevated into Thursday’s Bank of Japan meeting and the US election next week.”