EBC Markets Briefing | Loonie barely changes with trade pact in the limelight

EBC Financial Group analyst noted the Canadian dollar steadied near the 8-week low on Thursday ahead of domestic jobs data. Trump said he would be "honored" to meet Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei.

Loonie will strengthen over the coming year so long as the domestic economy recovers and progress is made in the review of a regional trade pact, the latest Reuters poll showed.

The median forecast of polled analysts was for the currency to increase to 1.37 per dollar in three months. BofA expects the BOC to leave its policy rate unchanged through 2026.

The economy unexpectedly slipped into a technical recession in Q1. PM Carney said he ⁠would prioritize lowering the cost of living, tackling a housing shortage, and building infrastructure projects.

Washington plans to impose tariffs on the North American free trade partners and faces significant trade issues with Canada, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Tuesday.

Trump is also concerned about the trade deficit with Mexico, he added. Mexico's exports to the US soared in 2025, driven by data processing units, while Canada's slipped on less commodity shipment.

The loonie was approaching a key support level around 1.3905 per dollar. But the RSI confirmed a consistently bearish run last month, pointing to another leg lower.

Asset recap

As of market close on 4 June, among EBC major products, American Tower shares led gains. The company delivered termination of its Strategic Collocation Agreement with DISH, effective 2 June.

Broadcom's results fell short of lofty expectations around demand for its ‌custom AI chips business. After years of treading water, the market cap has jumped more than eightfold since ChatGPT's 2022 launch.

The Dow pushed deeper into record terrain as investors pinned their hopes on a peace deal in Iran, while chips stock dropped, reflecting rotation out of pricey Big Tech into blue-chip value names.

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