Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 6 – 10 July 2026

Followme News Desk | July 6, 2026 | All times GMT+8

This week's economic calendar is focused on U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid, the RBNZ Interest Rate Decision, Crude Oil Inventories, the U.S. 10-Year Note Auction, FOMC Meeting Minutes, U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales and German CPI (MoM). The week opens Monday with the full suite of U.S. services data, followed by the RBNZ rate decision and Crude Oil Inventories on Wednesday.

Thursday is the most concentrated session of the week, with the 10-Year Note Auction, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales all landing across the same day, creating the primary volatility window for USD, gold, U.S. indices and broader risk sentiment. The FOMC Meeting Minutes stand out as the key release. In a week without a live Fed decision or major inflation print, the Minutes are the clearest available signal of how divided the committee is and how close or far, rate cuts actually are.

Key Events This Week

🕐 All times shown are GMT+8

Date	Time	CCY	Event	Forecast	Previous
6/7	21:45	🇺🇸 USD	S&P Global Services PMI (Jun)	51.1	50.7
	22:00	🇺🇸 USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun)	72.3	70.7
	22:00	🇺🇸 USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	53.7	53.6
8/7	10:00	🇳🇿 NZD	RBNZ Interest Rate Decision	2.25%	2.25%
	22:30	🇺🇸 USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-2.900M	-6.088M
9/7	01:00	🇺🇸 USD	10-Year Note Auction	—	4.47%
	02:00	🇺🇸 USD	⭐ FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—
	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	Initial Jobless Claims	219K	216K
	22:00	🇺🇸 USD	Existing Home Sales (Jun)	4.07M	4.04M
10/7	14:00	🇩🇪 DEM	German CPI (MoM) (Jun)	0.00%	-0.20%

Macro Analysis

🇺🇸 U.S. S&P Global Services PMI

S&P Global Services PMI for June is forecast at 51.1, nudging up from 50.7 prior, a modest but meaningful improvement for a sector that accounts for the bulk of U.S. economic activity. It's not a dramatic headline number, but a reading that continues to build above 50 tells you the services economy is holding its ground. A beat here would support USD by reinforcing the idea that domestic demand isn't fading. A miss or a slip back toward 50 would raise questions about whether the post-NFP softness from last week is starting to show up in activity data too.

🇺🇸 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Prices Paid

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for June is forecast at 53.7, barely above the 53.6 prior effectively flat. The more interesting number here is ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices, forecast at 72.3, up from 70.7. Prices moving higher in the services sector is exactly the kind of data point that gives the Fed pause about cutting. A PMI reading that holds in expansion alongside elevated price pressures would be USD-positive and keep the higher-for-longer narrative intact. If the PMI disappoints or prices pull back more than expected, it could soften Dollar sentiment at the start of an otherwise data-light week.

🇳🇿 RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to hold at 2.25%, unchanged from the previous meeting. A hold is fully priced in, so the market reaction will hinge entirely on the tone of the statement and any forward guidance the RBNZ offers on the rate path ahead. A dovish hold, one that signals further cuts are coming, may weigh on NZD. A more neutral or cautiously optimistic statement could provide NZD with a modest lift, particularly if the global risk backdrop stays supportive heading into mid-week.

🇺🇸 U.S. Crude Oil Inventories

Crude Oil Inventories are forecast at -2.900M, a smaller drawdown than the -6.088M seen prior. The prior week's large drawdown added some support to oil prices, and a continuation, even at a more modest pace, would keep the energy narrative constructive. A drawdown smaller than forecast, or a surprise build, could weigh oil prices and reduce some of the inflationary noise the Fed has been tracking in energy costs. In a quieter mid-week session, this data could move energy-related pairs more than usual.

🇺🇸 U.S. 10-Year Note Auction

The 10-Year Note Auction comes with a previous yield of 4.47%, a level that already reflects a market pricing in some degree of persistent inflation and Fed caution. Strong demand at this level would signal that investors remain comfortable holding U.S. debt even at current rate expectations, which is broadly supportive of risk sentiment and mildly USD-positive. A weak auction with poor bid-to-cover ratios or a yield that clears above 4.47% could rattle bonds and spill over into equities and gold, creating a choppy overnight session for USD pairs.

🇺🇸 FOMC Meeting Minutes

The FOMC Meeting Minutes from the most recent Fed decision will be closely read for any clues about how divided the committee is on the path forward. Markets will be scanning for language around the conditions needed for rate cuts, any internal debate about the pace of easing, and how officials are interpreting the recent inflation and labour market data. A set of minutes that reads as more hawkish than the market currently expects could support USD by pushing back rate cut timelines. More dovish-leaning language, particularly if multiple members expressed openness to cutting soon, could weaken the Dollar as traders pull forward their easing expectations.

🇺🇸 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Claims are forecast at 219K, ticking up from 216K prior. Coming in the same week as the FOMC Minutes, claims will be read partly through the lens of what the Fed is watching. A reading at or below 219K keeps the labour market story largely intact, low claims, stable jobs, no urgency for the Fed to move. A jump above consensus would raise fresh concern about whether last week's soft NFP print was an early warning of something more structural, and could start pushing USD lower as rate cuts expectations build.

🇺🇸 U.S. Existing Home Sales

Existing Home Sales for June are forecast at 4.07M, a modest step up from 4.04M prior. Housing remains one of the more interest-rate-sensitive corners of the economy, so a reading that beats forecast would suggest buyers are adjusting to the current rate environment and activity is picking up. That's quietly USD-supportive. A miss, particularly if it comes alongside softer claims or dovish FOMC Minutes in the same session, could add to a broader picture of a slowing economy and put additional pressure on the Dollar heading into Friday.

🇩🇪 German CPI (MoM)

German CPI for June is forecast at 0.00%, stabilising after the -0.20% reading in May. A flat reading would suggest that the sharp monthly disinflation seen last month hasn't continued, which is marginally EUR-positive. It removes some of the urgency around further ECB easing. A surprise to the upside, even a small one, could lift EUR by reducing near-term cut expectations. A negative reading again would put the ECB back under pressure to act and weigh on the single currency heading into the weekend.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders

This is a lighter week by recent standards, no major U.S. inflation or labour market shock, no central bank decision from the Fed, but that doesn't mean it's without risk. Monday opens with services data that will set the tone for how markets interpret last week's soft NFP, and Thursday packs the real punch with the FOMC Minutes, 10-Year Auction, Claims and Existing Home Sales all landing in the same session. The Minutes are the standout event of the week. After a run of mixed U.S. data. Traders want to know whether the Fed is genuinely moving toward cuts or sitting tight and the Minutes will be the clearest signal available until the next meeting.

If services PMIs hold firm, minutes read as patient rather than dovish, claims stay low and the bond auction draws solid demand, USD has a reasonable foundation to build on. If the Minutes reveal a more divided or dovish committee, claims tick up and service data disappoints, the Dollar could give background quickly as the rate cut narrative gets a fresh push.

🟩 Bullish USD Scenario — Stronger Dollar Case

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Holds in Expansion with Elevated Prices — A firm PMI alongside prices at 72.3 or above would signal that services inflation isn't going anywhere fast, keeping the Fed on hold.

S&P Global Services PMI Beats 51.1 — A stronger-than-expected read at the start of the week would set a positive tone for USD heading into the more data-heavy sessions later.

FOMC Minutes Read as Hawkish — Language that emphasises patience, data dependency or concern about inflation re-acceleration would push back rate cut expectations and support USD broadly.

10-Year Note Auction Draws Strong Demand — A well-bid auction at 4.47% or below would signal bond market confidence and reduce yield volatility, giving USD a quiet tailwind.

Initial Jobless Claims Stay Low — A reading at or below 219K would keep the labour market narrative stable and remove one of the key arguments for near-term Fed easing.

Existing Home Sales Beat Forecast — A number above 4.07M would suggest housing demand is holding up under current rates, adding a mild USD-positive data point to an otherwise quiet Thursday.

🌡 Wild Cards — High Whipsaw Risk

FOMC Minutes vs Market Expectations Gap — If the Minutes reveal a more hawkish or more dovish tone than traders currently expect, USD could move sharply in either direction regardless of what other data shows that day.

ISM Prices vs PMI Divergence — If prices surge, but the services PMI disappoint, markets may struggle to read the data cleanly - inflation concern and growth worry pulling USD in opposite directions.

10-Year Auction Tail — A yield that clears materially above 4.47% would signal weak demand and could trigger a spike in yields that rattles equities and creates choppy cross-market moves into the end of the week.

RBNZ Surprise Guidance — An unexpected shift in the RBNZ's rate outlook could move NZD pairs quickly and ripple into broader risk sentiment mid-week.

German CPI Surprise — A move in either direction beyond the 0.00% forecast could shift EUR/USD in a way that amplifies or dampens USD moves from the Thursday session.

Claims and Minutes Same Day — If claims jump and the Minutes read dovish simultaneously, the combined effect could accelerate USD selling in a way that's harder to reverse before the week closes.

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario — Weaker Dollar Case

FOMC Minutes Reveal Dovish Committee — Any language suggesting multiple members are ready to cut soon, or that the bar for easing has been lowered, would weaken USD by pulling forward rate cut expectations.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Disappoints — A reading that stalls near 53 or slips toward 50 would signal fading services momentum and add to concerns about the broader economic trajectory.

Initial Jobless Claims Rise Above Consensus — A clear jump above 219K would revive concerns about labour market softening in the wake of last week's soft NFP print.

10-Year Note Auction Draws Weak Demand — A poorly received auction would push yields higher and trigger risk-off sentiment, weighing on equities and increasing pressure on USD.

S&P Global Services PMI Slips Toward 50 — A reading that fails to build on 50.7 prior or moves back toward the expansion threshold would suggest the services sector recovery is losing momentum.

German CPI Falls Back Negative — A second consecutive negative monthly print would accelerate ECB easing bets and lift EUR/USD at the Dollar's expense heading into the weekend close.