MACRO   ECONOMIC CALENDAR   August 3 – 7, 2026  ·  GMT+8

Weekly Economic Calendar: Week of 3 – 7 August 2026

Followme News Desk  |  August 3, 2026  |  All times GMT+8

This week's economic calendar is heavily focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices, JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, S&P Global Services PMI, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Prices, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and the Unemployment Rate. It's a week that builds a layer at a time, manufacturing on Monday, labour demand on Tuesday, private-sector hiring and services on Wednesday, claims on Thursday, and the full payroll release on Friday.

Nonfarm Payrolls is the standout event and Friday's release carries more weight than usual this week. With payroll forecast at 114K against last month's 129K, the setup carries real downside risk for USD if the trend of declining job creation continues. But the ISM Manufacturing Prices printed on Monday is the early number worth watching closely. A collapse from 8.50% to -5.00% would reframe the inflation conversation before anything else has even had a chance to land.

Key Events This Week

🕐 All times shown are GMT+8

Date	Time	CCY	Event	Forecast	Previous
3/8	21:45	🇺🇸 USD	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	54.4	53.9
	22:00	🇺🇸 USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	53.8	54.0
	22:00	🇺🇸 USD	⭐ ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul)	-5.00%	8.50%
4/8	22:00	🇺🇸 USD	JOLTS Job Openings (Jun)	7.280M	7.585M
5/8	20:15	🇺🇸 USD	⭐ ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jul)	118K	122K
	21:45	🇺🇸 USD	S&P Global Services PMI (Jul)	51.3	51.2
	22:00	🇺🇸 USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jul)	67.5	71.3
	22:00	🇺🇸 USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	54.2	54.5
6/8	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	Initial Jobless Claims	211K	209K
7/8	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul)	0.30%	0.30%
	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	⭐ Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)	114K	129K
	20:30	🇺🇸 USD	Unemployment Rate (Jul)	4.30%	4.30%

Macro Analysis

🇺🇸 U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July is forecast at 54.4, building on 53.9 prior, another step higher in an index that's been quietly strengthening over recent months. A reading at or above forecast would reinforce the view that U.S. Factory activity is gaining traction, not just holding steady, and gives USD a constructive start to the week before the heavier labour data arrives later. A miss that pulls the index back toward 53 wouldn't be alarming on its own, but coming into a week where NFP is the main event, any sign of softening industrial momentum would put traders in a more defensive posture heading into Friday.

🇺🇸 U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices

ISM Manufacturing PMI for July is forecast at 53.8, a marginal easing from 54.0 prior barely a move. The more interesting number alongside it is ISM Manufacturing Prices, forecast at -5.00% compared to 8.50% prior. That's a dramatic swing in the price component and the standout detail on Monday. If prices do collapse that sharply, it would signal that upstream cost pressures in the manufacturing sector are fading fast, the kind of reading that adds to the disinflationary picture and gives the Fed more room to consider easing. A smaller drop in prices, or a surprise rebound, would preserve the inflation-is-sticky narrative and keep USD better supported.

🇺🇸 U.S. JOLTS Job Openings

Job Openings for June are forecast at 7.280M, pulling back from 7.585M prior. The drop is meaningful enough to notice if confirmed, it would signal that hiring demand is cooling across the broader economy, which tends to set a softer tone for the labour market readings that follow later in the week. Traders will use this number to calibrate their NFP expectations. A reading that holds closer to 7.585M would keep the jobs picture looking resilient and reduce some of the anxiety heading into Friday. A drop much further than 7.280M would raise the stakes considerably for Friday's payroll release.

🇺🇸 U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

ADP for July is forecast at 118K, easing from 122K prior. A small step down but still a relatively solid private-sector jobs number. As the week's first direct read on employment conditions ahead of Friday's official release, this number matters more than usual. A beat above 118K would build confidence that the labour market is holding up and support USD into the back half of the week. A miss, particularly a sharp one, would immediately shift positioning ahead of NFP and could start a Dollar selloff that accelerates if Friday's headline also disappoints.

🇺🇸 U.S. S&P Global Services PMI

S&P Global Services PMI for July is forecast at 51.3, barely above 51.2 prior essentially flat. It's not a number that will move markets dramatically on its own, but in a week where the services sector has been the main driver of U.S. growth, any slip toward or below 51 would attract attention. A hold or modest beat keeps the expansion picture intact without telling traders anything they don't already know. A drop below 51 would raise questions about whether services momentum is finally starting to fade, adding another layer of concern in a week already shaped by manufacturing prices and labour data.

🇺🇸 U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Prices

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for July is forecast at 54.2, a small easing from 54.5 prior, while Non-Manufacturing Prices are forecast at 67.5, down from 71.3. Both moving slightly lower in the same direction tells a consistent story. The services activity is still expanding but the pace is moderating, and cost pressures are easing alongside it. If both numbers come in around forecast, it gives the Fed a relatively clean data point: growth holding, inflation cooling, no urgent action required. A sharper drop in either the PMI or the prices index would accelerate the dovish narrative and weigh on USD heading into Thursday and Friday.

🇺🇸 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

Claims are forecast at 211K, ticking up from 209K prior. Two consecutive weeks of low claims heading into an NFP week is the kind of backdrop that keeps the labour market story constructive. A reading at or below 211K would reinforce the view that layoffs remain contained and Friday's payroll number isn't going to shock to the downside. A jump above consensus, particularly anything toward 220K or higher, would immediately put traders on edge about NFP and could start moving USD lower before Friday even arrives.

🇺🇸 U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate

This is the week's standout release. Nonfarm Payrolls for July are forecast at 114K, a notable slowdown from 129K prior, while Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) are forecast at 0.30%, flat with the prior reading, and the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold at 4.30%. A payroll print near 114K wouldn't be catastrophic, but it continues the trend of declining monthly job creation and will be read alongside everything else the week has delivered. If ADP disappointed, JOLTS showed cooling demand and claims ticked up, then a soft NFP landing at or below forecast could trigger a meaningful USD selloff as rate cuts expectations sharpen quickly. A surprise beat anything materially above 129K, would flip the week's narrative entirely and send the dollar higher across the board.

Speculative Outlook for USD Traders

This week builds toward Friday in a way where the early data will do a lot of work in shaping how traders approach NFP. Monday's manufacturing PMIs and prices give you the industrial picture. Tuesday's JOLTS tells you whether companies are still looking to hire. Wednesday's ADP and services data fill in the private-sector and consumer-facing picture. By Thursday's claims number, the market will have a pretty clear view of which way it's leaning and Friday's NFP either confirms that view or blows it up.

The ISM Manufacturing Prices swing from 8.50% to -5.00% is the earliest number to watch most closely. That kind of reversal in input costs would signal something real about the inflation pipeline, and if it's confirmed, it reframes the whole week's conversation before ADP or services data, even prints. If prices hold closer to flat rather than falling that sharply, the inflation picture stays murkier and USD has more room to hold ground through the back half of the week.

🟩 Bullish USD Scenario — Stronger Dollar Case

• Manufacturing Prices Don't Collapse — If the price index falls less dramatically than the -5.00% forecast, the disinflationary narrative doesn't get the clean confirmation it needs and USD holds better through the week.
• ADP Beats 118K on Wednesday — Private-sector hiring coming in above forecast sets a positive tone heading into Thursday and Friday, giving USD bulls something to work with before NFP.
• JOLTS Holds Near 7.585M — Job openings staying closer to last month's level would suggest hiring demand hasn't fallen as sharply as the forecast implies, keeping the labour market story intact.
• NFP Beats 114K Meaningfully — A headline payroll number well above forecast would be the single clearest USD-positive outcome of the week, particularly if earnings hold firm alongside it.
• Wages Hold at 0.30% MoM — Average Hourly Earnings staying flat rather than missing keeps the income and spending picture supported and removes one argument for the Fed to ease.
• Services PMI Stays Firm Above 51.3 — Both ISM and S&P Global holding in comfortable expansion territory on Wednesday would show the broader economy isn't losing momentum.

🌡 Wild Cards — High Whipsaw Risk

• ISM Prices Collapse While PMI Holds — If manufacturing prices drop sharply, but the PMI holds at 53.8, markets will struggle to decide whether this is disinflation or something more concerning. USD could swing both ways as traders debate the signal.
• ADP Miss Then NFP Beat — A soft ADP print on Wednesday triggers Dollar selling, then a strong NFP on Friday reverses it all. Anyone who moves aggressively mid-week gets caught on the wrong side twice.
• JOLTS Drop Below 7.000M — A reading well below forecast would be an outlier that markets can't easily dismiss, and could trigger a risk-off move on Tuesday that carries USD lower into Wednesday's services data.
• NFP Exactly at 114K — A payroll print bang on forecast wouldn't give bulls or bears a clean read. The reaction could be choppy and directionless before settling on whatever the wages and unemployment rate numbers suggest.
• Services PMI and Manufacturing PMI Both Miss — If both PMI readings disappoint on Monday and Wednesday, the expansion picture starts looking a lot more fragile heading into an already sensitive NFP week.
• Claims Jump to 220K or Above — A sharp claims number on Thursday, the day before NFP, would be the worst possible setup for Dollar bulls and could accelerate positioning into the payroll release in a way that amplifies Friday's reaction.

🔴 Bearish USD Scenario — Weaker Dollar Case

• NFP Disappoints Below 114K — A headline miss on Friday is the single biggest risk to USD this week. If it comes alongside higher unemployment or softer wages, the dollar could fall hard and fast.
• Unemployment Rate Ticks to 4.40% or Above — Even a 0.10% rise in the jobless rate alongside a soft payroll print would sharply accelerate rate cut expectations and weigh USD into the weekend.
• ADP Misses Badly on Wednesday — A print well below 118K, particularly after JOLTS already showed cooling demand, would build a compelling bearish USD case before NFP even arrives.
• ISM Manufacturing Prices Drop Confirms Disinflation — If the price index really does fall toward -5.00%, it adds meaningful weight to the case that goods inflation is collapsing, giving the Fed cover to consider cutting sooner than markets currently expect.
• JOLTS Falls Sharply Below 7.280M — A reading well below forecast on Tuesday would set a cautious tone for the rest of the week and start moving USD lower before the key Wednesday and Friday data even prints.
• Services Data Softens Across the Board — If both ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI slip on Wednesday, the growth picture starts to look fragile on multiple fronts at once, and USD struggles to find buyers heading into NFP.

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