Gold prices dipped Monday as the drag from a robust US dollar and climbing Treasury yields was completely countered by growing market confidence that the Fed will hold interest rates steady this month.
According to Barclays Capital, the US 30-year yield has room to climb to 6%. The report explains that the recent Treasury market selloff fails to reflect the risks of a lasting boost in productivity growth.
Surging business activity and mounting US debt concerns have intensified the biggest Treasury market selloff since Trump's 2025 tariffs sent shockwaves through the market.
Technically that outlook bodes ill for gold. However, central banks are still aggressively buying gold to hedge geopolitical tensions and sovereign credit risks, which could put a floor under its price.
The WGC reports that last year's increased gold usage in new AI systems was completely offset by hardware manufacturers reducing the amount of precious metal in their components.
On 1 October, HSBC lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,490 per ounce, while cutting its 2027 average to $4,825, citing additional near-term pressure.
EBC Financial Group analyst says that gold was currently sitting at a critical inflection point. If the $4,131 support floor holds, a potential bounce back toward the $4,250 zone seems likely.
Asset Recap
As of market close on 5 October, among EBC major products, iShares MSCI BRAZIL ETF led gain after the son of ex-president Jair Bolsonaro put in a stronger than expected showing in the presidential election.
SpaceX shares reached their highest since mid-June, shortly after Elon Musk's company held its record IPO. Morgan Stanley analysts recommend buying the stock and have a $300 price target.
Bristol-Myers slid after Leerink Partners downgraded the pharmaceutical giant from Outperform to Market Perform, citing growing scepticism surrounding key candidates in the company's drug development pipeline.
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