Gold to Continue Downward Trend Ahead of PCE Release

#XAU/USD#

Gold prices (XAU/USD) XAUUSD continued their downward trend for the second consecutive day, marking the fifth day of negative movement in the last six trading sessions, and plummeted to a nearly two-week low around $4,050 during Wednesday's Asian session.

This sustained pressure brought gold prices within striking distance of their year-to-date low. The collapse in bullion prices was triggered by a combination of falling crude oil prices and the deadlock over nuclear inspection claims, which pushed the US dollar (USD) to a new high since May 2025.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

✅ Commodity Impact: Strait of Hormuz Limited Opening & US 60-Day Sanctions Waiver
The main upstream factor eroding gold's function as an inflation hedge is the sharp decline in crude oil prices, which this morning hit a new low since early March.

- ⚡IRGC Limited Access: An Iranian military source confirmed to Fars news agency that maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has resumed on a limited basis. A limited number of commercial vessels are permitted to pass daily in coordination with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy.

- ⚡Iran Oil Supply Flood: The decline in energy prices accelerated after the US Treasury Department officially issued a 60-day temporary sanctions waiver. This policy fully legalizes the production, shipment, and sale of Iranian crude oil and petrochemical products to the global market. This supply flood immediately alleviated concerns about global energy disruption and reduced projections of upstream consumer inflationary pressures.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Intraday)
Technically, on the daily chart, gold confirms the return of a very aggressive short-term downward bias (downside dominance continuation):

- ⚡Sustained Weakening Pattern: The success of bears in locking prices below the $4,100 level confirms that any daily recovery attempt will be considered corrective and vulnerable to a sell-on-rally by large institutions.

- ⚡Awaiting Tomorrow's PCE Trigger: Gold is currently testing the lower limit area at $4,050. The movement is projected to start tightening (sideways consolidation) tonight as large traders hold positions ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE Core) data tomorrow Thursday, which is the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator.