DAILY BRIEFING Morn...來自Smart Jet

30 Sep 2022, 15:12 · 閱讀量 132

DAILY BRIEFING Morning traders, Dollar pullback continues and we are now eyeing 0.99800 resistance zone in EURUSD for some potential shorts, today's core PCE number will be important to shape sentiment for the next FOMC meeting, this number is Powell's preferred measure for inflation so any deviation will be meaningful to the FED's decisions, any surprise higher and we may get an immediate resumption of the medium Dollar bullish trend, any surprise lower and the pullback continues While we keep an eye on the Dollar for a possible trade our only running trade remains AUDCHF shorts

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Morning traders, with the CPI everywhere I look I see notes about the likelihood of a strong print, Goldmans is also expecting a number a tiny bit above expectations so we are geared in that direction but obviously when the consensus is geared one way the risk is that the number doesn't meet the already high expectations triggering an unwind of positions So, even if the likelihood is USD strength we don't want to get into the event too long the Dollar, meaning that we will likely adjust the recently added AUDUSD short before the CPI later, then once we see the numbers and the price action around it we can start looking at some medium term direction across the board

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Powell still speaking but so far not much forward guidance is being given, simply the FED is open to hiking further but also open to a pause depending on how the data develops until the next rate decision, so without much said from Powell the Dollar is rightfully basically flat after a bit of volatility on both sides, not a lot to do with it, will see where markets are at tomorrow at the London open but for now, no short term bias and no short term fundamental direction from this flat FOMC

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‼️AUDUSD update, expecting a lot more downside fundamentally on this but shorter term it’s about to dip into decent support and a pullback feels appropriate so taking profit here at market price and then we will look for more USD longs after a decent pullback‼️

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Morning traders, RBA hiked 25bps overnight which was a move not priced in, and that's an interesting development, mainly because it offers us an insight into what central banks might be thinking, you know, if the RBA is overextending on its tightening then other central banks might find themselves in a similar situation, sure the context around the RBA and FED is different but still, the RBA just opened the door for the possibility of central banks doing MORE than what's currently expected With that said, this is not something that we can take action on short term but it whispers that it is time to be careful with risk assets again, more tightening not just from the FED but from other central banks too will put more pressure on the economy globally which will weigh on risk, so in this context I continue to like the Dollar

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Morning traders, with a data dependant FED the data from the US becomes even more important as it will decide the next move at the next rate decision and shape the sentiment heading into it, the first important number for that is the NFP today which we monitor carefully With that TDS is expecting a number below consensus and Goldmans is expecting a number above consensus so mixed reading, but the plan for me is still in favor of USD longs so if we see a strong NFP later we might jump into some Dollar longs right before the weekly close

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