🌅 NordFX Morning Update – June 18, 2026
📉 Wall Street recap: US stocks fell after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first FOMC press conference turned hawkish. The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% (unanimous 12–0), but the dot plot lifted the 2026 median rate projection to ~3.8% from 3.4%, with 2026 PCE inflation forecasts jumping to 3.6%. Dow –0.98% to 51,492.55, S&P 500 –1.21% to 7,420.10, Nasdaq –1.34% to 26,021.66.
🌏 Asian markets: Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped +1.8%, breaking above 71,000 for the first time ever, even after the BoJ hiked rates to 1.0% earlier this week – the highest since 1995. Hong Kong's Hang Seng is down around –0.7%, China's CSI 300 is roughly flat, and Australia's ASX 200 slipped –0.3%.
🕊️ Geopolitics: Trump and Iran's president signed an MOU Wednesday extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal ceremony still due Friday in Switzerland. This is easing safe-haven demand and pressuring the dollar into Thursday's session.
💱 FX: The dollar has pulled back from Wednesday's post-Fed highs. USD/JPY holds near 160.50–161.00 (highest since mid-2024), EUR/USD is back near 1.1600, and GBP/USD recovered above 1.3300 after touching a 2-month low – all eyes on the Bank of England decision at noon GMT (a hold at 3.75% is expected). AUD/USD is edging higher near 0.7070.
🥇 Commodities: Gold rebounded above $4,300/oz after Wednesday's Fed-driven slide, as the weaker dollar offsets the hawkish rate outlook. Oil is softer – WTI near $75.5, Brent near $79 – on expectations that the Hormuz reopening will bring more supply back online.
👀 Today's watch: BoE rate decision at noon GMT, plus continued market digestion of the Fed's hawkish pivot versus easing Middle East risk.
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NORDFX Global
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