PCE and GDP Day: What Growth and Inflation Together Tell Forex Traders | NordFX
Today the US drops two heavyweight reports back to back: the third estimate of Q1 2026 GDP and the May Personal Income and Outlays report, home to the Fed's favorite inflation gauge, PCE. 📊
GDP growth was already revised down to 1.6% annualized in the second estimate, from 2.0% at the advance reading, on weaker consumer spending and investment. Since consumption drives nearly 70% of GDP, today's number is a real time read on how stretched US households are.
Inflation has been climbing, not cooling. April's PCE ran 3.8% year over year, core at 3.3%, both well above the Fed's 2% target. Economists expect May's print to push higher, toward roughly 4.1% headline, the hottest since 2023, driven largely by the oil shock from the Israel Iran war that began in late February. 🛢️
There is a silver lining: crude has dropped sharply this week, with WTI near $70 and Brent near $73.50, the lowest since the war started, as ceasefire talks edge forward, though still fragile, with flashpoints in Lebanon and around the Strait of Hormuz. A cooler May reading would ease pressure on the Fed.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in his first meeting on June 17, a fourth straight hold, but dropped dovish forward guidance. Half the committee now sees a hike by year end, and futures markets price roughly 70% odds of one by September. 🏦
That tension is exactly why today matters for FX. A hot PCE plus solid GDP would push the dollar, already near a one year high, even further, with EUR/USD pinned near 1.136 and gold sliding toward $4,000. A cooler surprise could spark a relief rally in EUR, GBP and gold, especially with sterling already weak on UK political turmoil. Expect a volatile session either way. ⚡
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